Friday, July 1, 2016

World Population Estimate 11 Billion +/- by 2100

The December 2014 graph (below) estimates that the world will have 11 billion people by 2100. This estimate was revised greatly upward (from the previous estimate) based on trends out of Africa and Asia primarily.

Recently, I read an interview of UK economist Adair Turner on Financial Times. When asked what what really keeps him up at night, he answered:
“One thing we don’t often talk about is population. If you look at the UN forecasts, from 2008 onwards, of the 2100 population of the world, it keeps on increasing. They had it down at around 9 billion and it’s now up at around 11 billion. The place where population growth has come down more slowly than anticipated is Africa. I’m very worried about Nigeria, which has gone up from a population of about 40 million to 180 million now. By the end of the century, it could be 600 million."
So, in this post, let's take a look at, and review, that 2015 United Nations report...

The 2015 population looked like this: According to the results of the 2015 (population) Revision, the world population reached 7.3 billion as of mid-2015, implying that the world has added approximately one billion people in the span of the last twelve years. Sixty per cent of the global population lives in Asia (4.4 billion), 16 per cent in Africa (1.2 billion), 10 per cent in Europe (738 million), 9 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean (634 million), and the remaining 5 per cent in Northern America (358 million) and Oceania (39 million). China (1.4 billion) and India (1.3 billion) remain the two largest countries of the world, both with more than 1 billion people, representing 19 and 18 per cent of the world’s population, respectively. About one-quarter (26 per cent) of the world’s people are under 15 years of age, 62 per cent are aged 15-59 years, and 12 per cent are 60 or over.

Hana Ševíková and Jen Christiansen; SOURCES: “WORLD POPULATION STABILIZATION UNLIKELY THIS CENTURY,” BY PATRICK GERLAND ET AL., IN SCIENCE EXPRESS. PUBLISHED ONLINE SEPTEMBER 18, 2014 (2014 projections); “THE END OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH,” BY WOLFGANG LUTZ ET AL., IN NATURE, VOL. 412; AUGUST 2, 2001 (2001 projections) Scientific American.

Currently, the world population continues to grow though more slowly than in the recent past. Ten years ago, world population was growing by 1.24 per cent per year. Today, it is growing by 1.18 per cent per year, or approximately an additional 83 million people annually. The world population is projected to increase by more than one billion people within the next 15 years, reaching 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas, growing at a pace of 2.55 per cent annually in 2010-2015. Consequently, of the additional 2.4 billion people projected to be added to the global population between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion will be added in Africa.

Asia is projected to be the second largest contributor to future global population growth, adding 0.9 billion people between 2015 and 2050, followed by Northern America, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania, which are projected to have much smaller increments.

At the country level, much of the overall increase between now and 2050 is projected to occur either in high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa, or in countries with large populations. During 2015-2050, half of the world’s population growth is expected to be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of America, Indonesia and Uganda, listed according to the size of their contribution to the total growth.

The new projections include some notable findings at the country level. For example, within seven years, the population of India is expected to surpass that of China. Currently, the population of China is approximately 1.38 billion compared with 1.31 billion in India. By 2022, both countries are expected to have approximately 1.4 billion people. Thereafter, India’s population is projected to continue growing for several decades to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050, while the population of China is expected to remain fairly constant until the 2030s, after which it is expected to slightly decrease.

Among the ten largest countries in the world, one is in Africa (Nigeria), five are in Asia (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan), two are in Latin America (Brazil and Mexico), one is in Northern America (United States of America), and one is in Europe (Russian Federation). Amongst these, Nigeria’s population, currently the seventh largest in the world, is growing the most rapidly. Consequently, the population of Nigeria is projected to surpass that of the United States by about 2050, at which point it would become the third largest country in the world. By 2050, six of the ten largest countries in the world are expected to exceed 300 million: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and United States of America.

source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables

1 comment:

  1. Coincidentally, today there is a Wonkblog article with some interesting graphs about population as related to immigration in both Europe and the U.S. here:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/01/europes-immigration-crisis-is-just-beginning/

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