Friday, September 16, 2011

The September 2011 Rice Outlook


A recurring grain commodity theme that we see here in the U.S. this season continues with rice:
The U.S. export forecast was reduced 100,000 tons this month to 3.05 million tons based on smaller domestic long-grain supplies and reduced global competitiveness of the United States based on higher domestic prices. This reduction was partially offset by a 50,000-ton increase in Brazil’s export forecast to 750,000 tons unchanged from the year earlier record.

...and South America picks up global trade which we've lost.


Global rice stocks continue to make positive headway, though prices are also heading upwards as you can see in the above 5-year price graph from finviz. Since "rice feeds half the world" the 2008 food crisis was largely because of the high rice price at the time.
K.M.

September 2011 Updated Outlook:
  • The 2011/12 global rice production forecast was raised by 2.1 million tons this month to a record 458.4 million tons (milled basis), with production projections raised for Brazil, China, the Philippines, and the United States.
  • Global disappearance in 2011/12 is projected at a record 456.0 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from last month’s forecast.
  • Projections were raised for Brazil, China, and Ghana.
  • Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month and 2 percent larger than a year earlier. This is the fifth consecutive increase in global ending stocks, with global ending stocks the highest since 2002/03.
  • The global trade forecast for calendar year 2012 was reduced 45,000 tons to 31.8 million tons (milled basis), down 4 percent from the revised 2011 record. The U.S. export forecast was lowered while Brazil’s was raised. On the importer side, Brazil’s import forecast was reduced, while import forecasts for Libya and the U.S. were raised.

Domestic Report:
  • Despite a record yield, the U.S. 2011/12 rice ending stocks are projected to decline more than 21 percent.
  • U.S. medium- and short-grain production is projected to be record high in 2011/12.
  • Total U.S. rice supplies in 2011/12 are projected to decrease 13 percent.
  • Both U.S. exports and domestic and residual use are projected to decrease.
  • U.S. milled-rice exports are projected to decline 23 percent in 2011/12.
  • U.S. long-grain exports are projected to decline 22 percent in 2011/12.
  • U.S. long-grain prices are projected to increase in 2011/12.
  • U.S. medium/short-grain prices are projected to decline in 2011/12.
  • U.S rough-rice prices have risen since July.
  • U.S. ending stocks of all-rice in 2011/12 are projected at 38.3 million cwt, 5.1 million cwt above last month’s forecast, but 21 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 17.4 percent, up from 14.8 percent last month, but down from 19.4 percent in 2010/11.

International Outlook:
  • Upward Revisions for China and Brazil Push 2011/12 Global Rice Production Forecast Higher.
  • The 2011/12 global rice production forecast was raised by 2.1 million tons this month to 458.4 million tons (milled basis), led mostly by higher production forecasts for China and Brazil. Global rice production in 2011/12 is projected at a record, up nearly 2 percent from 2010/11.
  • The largest production change this month was for China, whose 2011/12 production estimate was raised 1.0 million tons to 139.0 million tons.
  • Brazil’s 2011/12 crop forecast was raised 940,000 tons this month to 8.84 million tons due to higher forecasts for both planted area and yield.
  • Global ending stocks are projected to increase for the fifth consecutive year.
  • Global disappearance in 2011/12 is projected at a record 456.0 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from last month’s forecast and still more than 7 million tons larger than 2010/11. Upward revisions for Brazil, China, and Ghana were partially offset by a reduction for Russia.
  • Global trade in 2011 is projected to be the highest on record.
  • Vietnam's rice exports are projected to be record-high in 2011.
  • Brazil's exports are projected to remain record-high in 2012.
  • The Philippines are projected to sharply increase imports in 2012.
  • Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month and 2 percent larger than a year earlier. Upward stocks revisions for Brazil, China, and the Philippines were partially offset by a decline for Vietnam. This is the fifth consecutive increase in global ending stocks, with global ending stocks the highest since 2002/03.
  • The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2011/12 is calculated at 21.6 percent, compared with 21.4 percent in 2010/11.


Global rice trading prices continue to rise:



source: Rice Outlook September 13, 2011 [pdf]

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