Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Brazil's Record Soybean Supply Means Favorable Export Potential as the U.S.'s Diminishes

As of the August 2011 forecast, Brazil produced a record 2010/11 soybean crop of 75.5 million tons (up 1 million tons from last month's estimate based on the latest harvest results). The upward adjustment in Brazil’s historical yield trend for soybeans improves the new-crop outlook—raising the 2011/12 crop projection by 1 million tons to 73.5 million. Projected soybean area for Brazil is unchanged at 25 million hectares (up 3 percent from 2010/11) as corn will compete strongly for cropland. Corn prices in Brazil are up 60-65 percent from a year ago, compared to 20-25 percent for soybeans. The rise in soybean prices is being restrained by large domestic stocks remaining from the 2010/11 harvest.

At the same time, U.S. soybean production is down and high corn prices are driving soybean use here as feed, too, all conditions pointing to lower U.S. soybean exports.

source: usda