Friday, March 18, 2011

Calculated Risk on Inflation and Housing


From Calculated Risk:

These measures all show that year-over-year inflation is still low, but increasing lately. Also, all three increased in February at a higher annualized rate: core CPI increased at an annualized rate of 2.4%, median CPI 2.4% annualized, and trimmed-mean CPI increased 3.8% annualized. This is the second consecutive month with the annualized rate for these three key measures at or above the Fed's inflation target. With the slack in the system, I have been expecting these core measures to stay below 2% this year.

Also, on February 23, 2011, from CR, who so far has been spot-on in his housing analysis:

I'd expect real (housing) prices (inflation adjusted) to fall for another 2 or 3 years, even if nominal prices bottom in 2011.

Of course, this prediction is a generalization and a useful economic indicator, whereas regional conditions determine relevant statistics for individual decision-making.

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