Friday, February 11, 2011

Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soy Graphs and Stocks-to-use February 2011

A new blog feature here is posting commodity charts which will be updated periodically under the respective tabs above for wheat, rice, soy, and corn. Under the food security tab there are stock-to-use ratios and the first chart below is my own low tech concoction.


[The stocks-to-use ratio (S/U) is a convenient measure of supply and demand interrelationships of commodities. This ratio indicates the level of carryover stock for any given commodity as a percentage of the total use of the commodity.]

World Grain Stocks
Corn stocks-to-use in U.S. 5.0%
Corn stocks-to-use global 15.0%
Soybean stocks-to-use in U.S. 4.2%
Soybean stocks-to-use global 22.8%
Wheat stocks-to-use in U.S. 35.2%
Wheat stocks-to-use global 26.5%
(updated 2/5/2011)
(Scroll to bottom for definition of "stocks-to-use ratio")


FAO Food Price Index & Food Commodity Price Indices





Wheat Price on 2/2/2011 - 854


September 2009 — February 1, 2011
(Updated February 2, 2011 — graph courtesy of CME Group.)



5-year historical price graph wheat courtesy of finviz.com


Rice Price 2/2/2011 - 1591


January 2010 — February 1, 2011
(Updated February 2, 2011 — Graph courtesy of CME Group.)



5-year historical price graph rough rice courtesy of finviz.com

Soybean Price 2/2/2011 - 1445


September 2009 — February 1, 2011
(Updated February 2, 2011 — graph courtesy of CME Group.)



5-year historical price graph soybeans courtesy of finviz.com

Corn Price 2/2/2011 - 667


September 2009 — February 1, 2011
(Updated February 2, 2011 — Graph courtesy of CME Group.)



5-Year graph historical corn prices courtesy of finviz.com


Definition of Stocks-to-use ratio of grains:
The stocks-to-use ratio (S/U) is a convenient measure of supply and demand interrelationships of commodities. This ratio indicates the level of carryover stock for any given commodity as a percentage of the total use of the commodity. Or, excess of supply against demand.

Beginning Stock + Total Production — Total Use

Total Use

Typically, a declining or a decline in ratio points towards a tight market situation suggesting higher prices for the concerned year. It is interesting to note that a higher stock-to-use ratio is associated with lower prices (as compared to previous year) and vice versa.

On a world basis a stocks/use ratio for wheat under 20% has typically led to strong price advances. For corn, the comparable number appears to be under 12% . For soybeans, the critical level is below 10%.

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