Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Rice Ending Stocks in the U.S. and the World

USDA 2009/10 Rice Yearbook Outlook Report (January 2011)

Comparatively favorable prices for rice led to larger U.S. plantings in 2009/10, and consequently a larger crop was harvested than in 2008/09. At the same time, weather problems in several major global markets reduced available global supplies of rice. With ample supplies, the U.S. was able to significantly boost exports in 2009/10 to supply a larger share of global demand. Despite higher exports, U.S. stocks continued to grow, leading to a larger carry-in for 2010/11.

Global ending rice stocks in 2009/10 were the highest since 2002/03:

Rice Exporters

Major Rice Exporters (India, Pakistan, the United States, and Vietnam increased exports in 2010):

Midlevel Rice Exporters (Burma’s exports dropped sharply in 2010):

Rice Importers

Major Rice Importers (Bangladesh’s imports increased five-fold in 2010):

World-wide Events

  • Erratic monsoon, El NiƱo, and typhoons reduced 2009/10 global rice production.
  • Initial forecasts for 2009/10 indicated record global production and lower trading prices.
  • India’s reduced crop accounted for much of the decline in global production in 2009/10.
  • The erratic monsoon caused a sharp decline in India’s rice area and production in 2009/10.
  • A smaller 2009/10 crop caused a reduction in the Philippines’ total rice supplies.
  • Global trade and ending rice stocks rose in 2009/10.
  • Global disappearance was nearly flat.
  • Global trade in rice is projected to increase 2 percent in 2010.

In the U.S.

  • U.S. 2009/10 rice plantings increased 5 percent.
  • Medium/short-grain accounted for all of the 2009/10 U.S. rice area expansion.
  • U.S. medium/short-grain prices were record high in early 2009.
  • Rice plantings increased in 2009 in Arkansas, California, Mississippi and Missouri but not in Texas or Louisiana, however, rice production was larger in all reported States in 2009 including Texas and Louisiana.
  • Despite delayed plantings in the South, U.S. average field yield rose 3.5 percent in 2009/10.
  • The U.S. 2009/10 rice crop increased 8 percent to 219.9 million cwt.
  • Medium/short-grain accounted for nearly all of the 2009/10 U.S. production increase.
  • Larger production and a bigger carry-in boosted 2009/10 total U.S. rice supplies almost 7 percent from a year earlier.
  • U.S. rice imports were nearly unchanged in 2009/10.
  • Despite larger supplies, U.S. total domestic and residual use fell in 2009/10.
  • Domestic and residual rice use has been nearly stable since 2006/07.
  • U.S. exports increased 15 percent due to tight global supplies and competitive prices.
  • U.S. rough-rice exports increased nearly 30 percent in 2009/10.
  • U.S. medium/short-grain exports reached a record 34.8 million tons in 2009/10.
  • U.S. rice exports to Sub-Saharan Africa grew by 25 percent in 2009/10.
  • Ending stocks increased, season-average farm rice prices declined, and annual milling rates were revised.
  • U.S. season-average farm prices for both long- and medium/short-grain rice declined in 2009/10.

U.S. rice exports increased in 2009/10 to all top five markets:

U.S. exports to the Middle East increased 50 percent in 2009/10:

U.S. ending rice stocks increased 20 percent in 2009/10:

source: USDA [pdf]