The Cattle at the Land Institute in Salina, Kansas

When I attended the Land Institute's "Prairie Festival" a month ago in Salina, Kansas, the large, tame cattle in the pasture near the barn where the talks were given were quite a hit with the nearly 1,000 festival attendants.



My grandfather raised purebred Hereford bulls on the Nebraska farm which I grew up on, so I may have some cattle awareness in my genes, but I couldn't figure out what these cattle were.

I enjoy seeing different livestock breeds, and previously, my post, "Miniature Cattle, Piedmontese Cattle, and White Park Cattle" was very popular. In a this-is-a-small-world kind of way, Kent Whealy, who spoke at the festival, was actually responsible for my interest in White Park Cattle, since I was introduced to the breed in Iowa at Seed Savers Exchange and was fascinated by their history.



At the Prairie Festival, no one that I asked could answer my question as to what kind of cattle these were. So, I contacted the Land Institute for the purpose of making this post, to solve the mystery.

This was their answer:

"Our cows were developed here – they are Longhorn with back crosses to Angus and Hereford . The calf born in spring of ’09 is the first one to revert back to the solid black. It’s mother and two sisters in the pasture are the unusual black and white ones."

Thanks! Mystery solved.
--Kalpa

For my previous posts related to this year's Prairie Festival see these links:

• News From the 2010 Annual Land Institute's "Prairie Festival"
• Wes Jackson, Wendell Berry and Serendipity
• Kent Whealy's Speech [Part I] at the Land Institute September 26, 2010: The Documenting of Heritage Apples
• Kent Whealy's Speech [Part II] at the Land Institute September 26, 2010: The Story of How Seed Savers Exchange Seeds Ended up at Svalbard
• Quotes by Wes Jackson from the 2010 Prairie Festival at the Land Institute

Boulder's on Fire Again

There's trouble in Paradise
There's a saying in this town that you don't leave it "unless its on fire or you've got a plane to catch for travel." It's a joke, meaning that there's really no reason to leave Boulder on most days. But, today, for the second or third time in two months, it's on fire. And some residents close to the fire are being forced to leave, or evacuate.

This fire, named the "Dome Fire," started around 8:30AM on public land, and unlike the the Fourmile Canyon Fire back in September, this one is on the slope facing town, which means it's closer to town and has people a little more nervous. It was another windy day here (gusts between 17-35mph) and Boulder has had only 2.25 inches of rain in the past three months.



The two photos above, were both taken from the balcony at the 29th Street mall in front of Borders Bookstore around 3PM today.



This (above) photo was taken looking West from Casey's Middle School, just north of downtown around 4PM today. I sat on a small hill above the school and watched the planes circling the fire and dropping their slurry. They were extremely active and I could see the progress they were making in just the short time that I watched.



For one final shot of the fire, I chose this famous landmark. The smoke is seen behind the Boulderado Hotel on Spruce Street, one block north of Pearl Street.

My next stop of the day was a stroll down Pearl Street. It was a beautiful 70 degree fall day. A couple of shop workers that I visited with were distraught from the morning. They spoke of being without electricity for an hour or more. They were relieved to have their shop doors back open and there was no smell of smoke or fire visibility from Pearl Street late this afternoon.

Luckily, I do not live in the area close to the fire and the winds are blowing the smoke away from my side of town. So far, it appears that this fire will not be as serious or last as long as the last one, though there is a concern that some of the fire fighting resources of the area have been depleted.
--Kalpa

For the Daily Camera's Dome Fire story plus videos go here.

Agricultural Commodity & Investment News Update October 29, 2010

Are input costs recoverable in today's markets? Hints are emerging which may answer this question in some of the agricultural investment and commodity articles below.

INVESTMENT: Companies on the Move

Converted Organics Fertilizers Sprout Super Spud Results in Idaho - Converted Organics Inc.(COIN) announced today that growers are reporting remarkably positive results from using Converted Organics(TM) LC and Converted Organics(TM) GP fertilizers. Throughout Eastern Idaho, potato growers using the product are reporting significant increases in both yields and in disease suppression.

Seed giant Limagrain arrives in Fort Collins - Group Limagrain, the biggest producer of crop seeds and crop research in Europe, has opened a subsidiary in Colorado with an office in Fort Collins. Limagrain Cereal Seeds is the first American office for Group Limagrain. The company will focus on wheat research and market its seeds under the LG brand.

JBS USA buys Greeley headquarters building - JBS USA, the American subsidiary of Brazil-based JBS S.A. meat company, has purchased its headquarters building in the Promontory development in west Greeley.

Global Seeds Market to Reach US$47 Billion by 2015, According to a New Report by Global Industry Analysts, Inc. - The global seed market has undergone rapid transformation in recent years with the advent of biotechnology in agriculture. Genetically Modified (GM) seeds offer economic advantages to farmers, and are sold at a premium in relation to conventional seeds.

Food Inflation Coming? - Food, like energy, is an area where compression of margins is very limited: Raw material prices are largely passed through to the consumer.

COMMODITIES:

Iron Ore, Coal Prices Squeezing Posco Margins - Posco (PKX), one of the world's biggest steel companies, sold 24% more of its product into Asia's steel-hungry factories last quarter, but its profits still sank 8% as costs climbed faster. The Korea-based giant confessed that its operating margins sank 4 full percentage points between July and September because strong global competition made it impossible to pass on rising iron ore and coal prices to its customers. (Kalpa's note: I included this steel story to serve as an example of what I expect to happen to grain commodities.)

When High Commodity Prices Come Back to Haunt Us - The corporate profit margin is in danger of collapse as an unintentional result of the Fed’s QE program. Given that commodity prices move well ahead of any improvement in wealth growth, consumption, or employment, the production cost is rising faster than the retail price. (Kalpa's note: Are you getting the picture?)

Demand surge to keep sugar prices high for years - World sugar prices are set to remain at elevated levels for years, to ensure producing countries – and notably Brazil – ramp up output to meet demand growth of more than 50% over the next two decades, Czarnikow said in a report.

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (10/26/10) - Most commodities are currently trading near the top of their trading ranges....Coffee and copper are currently the most overbought of the commodities shown.

Agricultural, Energy, and Economic News Update October 28, 2010

To follow are a wide variety of agricultural, macroeconomic, and energy related news items from this past week. In my opinion, the energy articles are particularly interesting today.

U.S. AG NEWS:

Rural mainstreet economy; weak businesses but strong farms - October Survey Results at a Glance: For a fourth straight month, the overall index declines below growth neutral. Farmland prices and farm equipment sales continue to grow briskly. More than half of bank CEOs expect high corn prices to be biggest challenge to ethanol profits.

The cost of a global food chain - Check out the garlic the next time you're in the supermarket. In another era, it might well have been grown in Gilroy, right here in California. But today, chances are that your garlic has traveled across oceans and continents to get to your kitchen. Most garlic nowadays comes from China. Since 2003, the amount of garlic imported from China has nearly tripled, while the amount grown in California has dropped by nearly half.

Trouble lurks in growing volume of abandoned citrus groves - Ripples from Florida's recession continue to claim more victims. This time it's one of the state's iconic industries — citrus. Groves increasingly are abandoned by financially stretched owners no longer able to care for the citrus trees.

Demand grows for California cara caras - The cara cara navel variety that originated in South America does not yet have the fan base of seedless mandarins, but its popularity is growing. That more and more shoppers are choosing cara caras has not been lost on California grower-shippers.

Before the Mac, Vintage Apples: Farmers and Stores Push Thousands of Heirloom Varieties, Rediscovering the Duchess of Oldenburg - Farmers and chefs treat them like fine wine, but these are apples—"heritage" or "heirloom" varieties that were common on American tables as far back as colonial times but today are rarely tasted. Now, a number of orchards and apple historians are growing these old varieties again and promoting them to restaurants, distributors and grocers.

INTERNATIONAL AG NEWS:

New technology to reduce Ghana’s fertilizer imports - Ghana’s Soil Research Institute (SRI) of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) is developing a carbon rich product to improve agriculture production and the environment. The technology known as Biochar is a fine-grained charcoal, high in organic carbon and largely resistant to decomposition.

Finding a Sustainable Way to Farm the Seas - With the rising global demand for fish and the oceans’ stocks dangerously depleted, fish farming has a potentially huge role to play in feeding the world’s growing population. But environmentalists say the industry is plagued with problems like disease, heavy antibiotic use and parasite infestations, and often causes more damage to wild fish populations than it prevents.

Canadian researchers issue warning over environmental impact of fish farming - For the first time in history, the bulk of seafood consumed by humans is likely coming from fish farms rather than from natural habitats, and there is an environmental price to pay for this, says a study produced by Canadian researchers.

ETHANOL:

Is corn stover the next big biofuel? - The experiments in the field parallel plans to develop a cellulosic ethanol industry in Iowa to complement the state's 40 corn-fed plants. To maintain their lead in ethanol production, Iowans must find an efficient, cost-effective way to harvest the tons of biomass left on fields.

Leading Advanced Biofuel Groups Meet at The White House - Leaders of the advanced biofuel industry personally delivered an important message to the Obama Administration this morning at a White House meeting that included representatives of the Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA), the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) and Algal Biomass Organization(ABO). The leaders' message emphasized the vital role the advanced biofuel industry plays in achieving America's energy security while strengthening the nation's economy by creating premium new jobs.

MACROECONOMIC VIEW:

Economy is running out of gas: Recession lurking with demand still weak - Add it all up and you have to wonder: Where is the growth going to come from? Despite this gloomy assessment, few economists are predicting an outright recession, just very slow growth.

What’s really behind that $1.3 trillion deficit? - So spending was $186 billion higher than if we’d stuck to the trend, and revenue was $681 billion lower. In other words, the giant deficit is mainly the result of the collapse in tax receipts brought on by the recession, not the increase in spending.

Food and Finance - I just read Michael Pollan’s book, In Defense of Food, and what struck me was the parallels between the evolution of food and the evolution of finance since the 1970s. This will only confirm my critics’ belief that I see the same thing everywhere, but bear with me for a minute.

Now It’s Official: Corruption Has Risen in US, Leading to Fall in Global Ranking - I suspect some readers will take issue with the US being ranked as high as it is, 22 out of 178 nations, in an annual survey of public sector corruption by Transparency International. However, it fell from 19 the year prior, so the trajectory at least is correct.

ENERGY:

Rising coal costs will be felt in electric bills: Mining expenses and foreign demand will bring higher prices to electric bills - Since last October, the price for a one- month contract for Wyoming's Powder River Basin coal, a main Colorado supplier, has risen 67 percent to $13.80 a ton, according to coal broker Evolution Markets. "You try to be more efficient, but at some point, that gets into the bill," said Jason Frisbie, power production manager for the Platte River Power Authority, which serves Fort Collins, Loveland, Longmont and Estes Park. "For years Powder River Basin coal was $5 a ton," Frisbie said. Then that coal began to be shipped east and the price ticked up. "The next wave came as more coal began moving overseas," he said.

Drowning in Crude - As shown, not only have inventory levels of crude been above average all year, but they haven’t been following the seasonal script either. While they should have been declining over the last several months, stockpiles have actually remained relatively unchanged. With today’s large build, crude oil stockpiles are now at their highest point of 2010, and at a higher point relative to the historical average than at any other point this year.

North Dakota eclipses oil record - The oil patch in North Dakota, which already accounts for 6 percent of U.S. crude production, is on pace to shatter last year's record by 30 million barrels.

Alaska reserve holds one-tenth of oil scientists had estimated, agency says - Recent drilling results indicate that the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska contains roughly one-tenth of the oil that federal scientists had previously estimated, the U.S. Geological Survey announced Tuesday.

URBAN AGRICULTURE:

Big cause on campus: Food-security movements grow as students raise awareness and work toward increasing access to organic products - Every Montreal campus you stroll through these days, from the concrete spaces of the Universite du Quebec a Montreal (UQAM) to the green expanses of Concordia's Loyola campus, boasts a productive vegetable patch. Student union bulletin boards yield notices for campus soup kitchens, worm-composting kits, canning workshops and calls for garden volunteers.

Celebrate Urban Agriculture - Cambridge, MA is one city where urban agriculture is catching on. The work of many of these spare time farmers was on display in Harvard Square at the Cambridge Urban Agricultural Fair. (Kalpa's Note: Nice video at source)

OTHER:

Sonoma County may allow rural roads to disintegrate - More than 1,200 miles of Sonoma County roads would be allowed to fail within 10 years, while 150 miles of heavily traveled roads remain relatively smooth under a maintenance plan to be considered today by the Board of Supervisors.

BOULDER LOCAL:

Region's farmers bring in banner harvest - "As a whole, Colorado is looking to have one of its best crops ever, even better than last year"

Plant researcher is happy to be heading to Harvard - I love to garden. I am almost competitive about gardening. My wife and I canned 80 quarts of tomatoes this year from just nine plants. We make jam from our fruit trees. We live now in Boulder, Colo., where the season is short but the sunlight is intense. I also grow hops and brew my own beer there.

Eating after the frost: Locavores look to winter markets, CSAs, sprouts and stored veggies - ...some farmers will keep selling through the darkest months, aided by root cellars, hoop houses, greenhouses, canning and ingenuity.

VIDEO:

(8 minutes) Jeff Rubin: Oil and the Death of Globalization - Canadian Economist Jeff Rubin is known for his prescient calls in the oil markets over the past few decades. His most recent book, Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, explains why continuously rising oil prices will mean the end of globalization.

Ponzi Schemes and Liquidity Traps

Bill Gross of PIMCO is out with his November newsletter.

Here are some key statements:

• We are being conned, folks; Democrats and Republicans alike. What have you really heard from either party that addresses America’s future instead of its prurient overnight fascination with scandal?
• We are, as even some Fed Governors now publically admit, in a “liquidity trap,” where interest rates or trillions in QEII asset purchases may not stimulate borrowing or lending because consumer demand is just not there. Escaping from a liquidity trap may be impossible, much like light trapped in a black hole.
• Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend; it is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. Public debt, actually, has always had a Ponzi-like characteristic.
• Sovereign countries have always implicitly acknowledged that the existing debt would never be paid off because they would “grow” their way out of the apparent predicament, allowing future’s prosperity to continually pay for today’s finance.
• Now, however, with growth in doubt, it seems that the Fed has taken Charles Ponzi one step further.... The Fed, in effect, is telling the markets not to worry about our fiscal deficits, it will be the buyer of first and perhaps last resort. There is no need – as with Charles Ponzi – to find an increasing amount of future gullibles, they will just write the check themselves. I ask you: Has there ever been a Ponzi scheme so brazen? There has not.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now Let's Play Punish the Saver

More from Gross's Newsletter:
Having arrived at its destination, the market then offers near 0% returns and a picking of the creditor’s pocket via inflation and negative real interest rates.

Here is PIMCO's next (stated) investment strategy, in the last section of his newsletter, since bonds are dead-in-the-water for the foreseeable future:

Interest rates may be rock bottom, but there are other ways – what we call “safe spread” ways –to beat the axe without taking a lot of risk: developing/emerging market debt with higher yields and non-dollar denominations is one way; high quality global corporate bonds are another. Even U.S. Agency mortgages yielding 200 basis points more than those 1% Treasuries, qualify as “safe spreads.”

Is it any wonder that everyone thinks the answer is to own farmland?

What a sad state of affairs our country is now in when faced with elections in which no citizen in their right mind wants to vote for any of the candidates, realizing that the system itself is badly broken, redistricting, our two-party system, and corporate power, to name a few of the biggies. Gross's letter's theme is such.

On a personal note, I rarely turn on the TV, but I had a rude awakening about a week ago when I decided to watch the national evening news while cooking dinner. Hence, the insane political ads that I was deluged with came as a shock to me and reinforced why I don't watch MSM evening news in the first place. As Gross said in this newsletter, the things they are stating in their assassination-attack-ads are not the things that we care about, want to hear about, or that really matter to this country.

Let me add that the fact that they think we are that stupid infuriates us, or, in many cases condemns us to apathy.
--Kalpa

The Prince of Wales on Sustainable Agriculture

Dumfries
Prince Charles Speech Featuring the
Morrisons Farm at Dumfries House
Yesterday, Prince Charles was in the British news for a speech he gave at Dumfries Farm in Scotland. He hit on all of the important points in discussing sustainable agriculture including peak oil and transitioning from high fossil fuel inputs while urging the world to change its farming practices. The event was in recognition of the UK's large supermarket chain, Morrisons, investment in this "new model farm," which the Prince of Wales had rescued for preservation in 2007.

The UK Guardian's article is a must-read, offering many nuggets of the speech.

Prince Charles cited a "remarkable" report published by the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations in 2008 called The international assessment of agricultural knowledge, science and technology for development. Its conclusions, accepted by the UK government and 57 other countries, said the world had to change its farming techniques or face "social and economic collapse", he said. It encouraged low-impact and organic farming, and farms which were much less reliant on fossil fuels. It stated: "Business as usual is no longer an option."

I would also recommend reading the UK Telegraph's coverage of the story, as it focuses more upon the Dumfries farm, itself. One of its goals will be to use the farm for instruction and educational purposes, as well as testing farming and livestock methods, with the eventual goal of making a profit by 2014.

Mr Philips said: "It will be a profitable farm. That's critical, because if we can be profitable as a farmer then we can share best practice with the other 2,050 farmers we work with across the country. "The consumer wants fresh food but is not going to want to pay more for it. The farmer needs to make money and if he doesn't then the farming industry is going to go in this country. That's serious and we cannot allow it to happen."

A third link you may want to check out is the page at the Morrisons supermarket chain's website which features Dumfries House farm. Or, their "fresh food" page which currently features a two-minute video which takes the viewer to one of the supermarket's local apple farms.

Some environmentalists are cynical about these ventures by this large supermarket, but it looks like a very positive step in some right directions to me.

U.S. Agricultural Exports versus the U.S. Trade Deficit

Can Agriculture Save America's Balance Sheet?

There has been a lot in the news lately about the currency race to the bottom as each nation wants to have the exporting advantage. Back in January, we heard President Obama say that he wants the U.S. to double its exports by 2015. Also, recently, there has been a great deal of press coverage about the U.S. grain and agricultural product export market strength as something very positive for our overall economy.

To follow, are a few select 2009 import and export numbers. I've categorized them as general trade numbers, followed by the Agriculture sector, and then the oil sector, for the sake of comparison. Keep in mind that because of the recent financial crisis, currency fluctuations, and the weather and economic related commodity demand fluctuations, these statistics have been quite volatile these past few years. To give you two examples of such volatility, the U.S. trade deficit was halved from 2008 to 2009 and the value of wheat exports was also halved from 2008 to 2009.

General numbers:

• The U.S. 2009 nominal GDP was $14.3 trillion (breakdown: agriculture: 1.2%; industry: 21.9%; services: 76.9%)
  
• U.S. Imports were $1.95 trillion in 2009
• U.S. Exports were $1.57 trillion in 2009
• 2009 trade deficit was $380 billion
  
• Obama's stated goal to double exports would equal $3.14 trillion in exports by 2015

Agriculture sector:

• 2009 Ag exports were $98.6 billion
• 2009 Ag imports were $71.7 billion
• 2009 Trade surplus in Agriculture was $26.9 billion
• Trade surpluses in the Ag sector for previous years: $5.6 in 2006; $18.1 in 2007; $34.8 in 2008)
• Year-to-date Ag exports stand at $15.6 billion (through August 2010)
  
• The total agricultural output, including forestry, fishing and hunting, was $136.4 billion in 2009, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• 0.7% of U.S. employment comes from farming, forestry, and fishing in the U.S.
• Agriculture's share of the economy shrank from 8.6 percent in 1948 to about 1 percent in the past decade.
• USDA expectations are that in 2011 our top three agricultural trading partners will be: Canada $16.8 billion; China $15 billion; and, Mexico $14.6 billion.
  

Breakdown of Ten U.S. Agricultural Export Categories in Dollar Amounts from 2009:

• Soybeans $16.9 (all in billions)
• Meat and poultry $12.1
• Corn $9.7
• Other foods $8.1
• Fruits and frozen juices $6.9
• Animal feed $6.3
• Wheat $5.5
• Vegetables $4.9
• Nuts $4.1
  
• Rice $2.2

Energy Sector U.S. Imports/Exports 2009:

• Petroleum imports in 2009 were $254 billion
• Petroleum exports in 2009 were $49 billion
• The 2009 deficit in petroleum products was $204.5 billion
• Crude oil imports were $188.7 vs. exports of $1.0 (in billions)
• "Other petroleum products" imports were $28.8 vs. exports of $21.7 (in billions)
• Natural gas imports were $16.1 vs. exports of $3.3 (in billions)
• Fuel oil imports were $27.1 vs. exports of $23.7 (in billions)

Summary:

• In 2009, the U.S. agricultural surplus erased 13 percent of our petroleum deficit in trade.
• The 2009 U.S. trade surplus in agricultural goods was equivalent to 7 percent of the year's total trade deficit.
• Agriculture represented 1.2% of U.S. 2009 nominal GDP and employed .7% of workers (directly).
  

Conclusion
While the recent press releases citing only the export figures in agriculture are feel-good for our ailing economy and reflect higher grain commodity prices for the time being, also helped out by a lower dollar value, rural main street is still hurting, farmland prices are becoming burdensome, and the agricultural trade surplus dollar amounts are not going to save America's balance sheet.

Agriculture will undoubtedly gain in GDP share and in sector employment percentage in the future, however, as our nation enters a time period of less affluence due to our debt burden, demographics, and higher fossil fuel prices.
--Kalpa

~~~~~

sources: cia, census.gov

Note that data is taken from this recent USDA report which defines agricultural products as: USDA defines agriculture to include: live animals, meat, and products of livestock, poultry, and dairy; hides and skins (but not leather products); animal fats and greases; food and feed grains and grain products; oilseeds and oilseed products; fruits, nuts, and vegetables and products of these; juices, wine, and malt beverages (not distilled spirits); essential oils; planting seeds; raw cotton, wool, and other fibers (not manufactured products of these); unmanufactured tobacco (not manufactured tobacco products); sugar and sugar products; coffee, cocoa, tea, and products of these; rubber and allied products; and stock for nurseries and greenhouses, spices, and crude or natural drugs. Fish, shellfish, and forestry products are not included in "agriculture."

Urban Agriculture: What is an Urban Backyard Chicken Cooperative? That's Co-op, Not Coop!

The concept is very simple. Ideally, seven neighbors who are interested in owning backyard chickens form a co-op, however, any size group will work. The biggest challenge is finding the home owner willing to house the chicken coop on his or her property. Once that hurdle is met, the coop needs to be designed and built and the chickens need to be selected, and purchased. From then on, each co-op member shares the expenses and responsibility of caring for the chickens one day a week. As a member, your assigned work day of the week is also the day you are privileged to gather the eggs.

One obvious advantage with this co-op type of arrangement is that you don't have to be a homeowner to be a chicken owner. The advantage for the coop host is that he or she can own chickens with less work and responsibility, especially for someone who travels frequently. There is the positive aspect of social gain and neighborhood strengthening involved in this type of set-up, too.

The photos that I am using in this post are from just such a co-op here in Boulder which happens to be very near the famous Pearl Street in downtown Boulder. You would never know it. The owner of a large rental home was onboard to host the chicken coop in her backyard. She also gardens this same backyard. See next photo.



The photo below shows the chickens eating inside their coop. The photo at the very beginning of this post shows the coop's exterior drop down opening used to gather eggs without disturbing the hens.



This final photo shows one of the proud members of this co-op holding a very tame chicken.



--Kalpa

Today's WTF Policy: USDA Money Goes to....

switchgrass

Yesterday, on my Ag news Update thread, I included the WSJ article, (Bio)Mass Confusion: High costs and environmental concerns have pushed biomass power to the sidelines in the U.S. The key sentence was, "Biomass power costs more to produce than power derived from fossil fuels, largely because it requires more labor to chip up wood and truck it to plants, industry executives say."

The problem with biomass is logistics. With switchgrass, for example, massive storage facilities need to be built next to plants to dry the grass bales prior to burning, not to mention the inputs necessary to harvest and transport the volumes of "mass." With wood, you need to harvest it, haul it, then try to burn it in the least polluting way possible. In wooded areas it makes some sense and it's been used as a supplement to electricity generation in some places such as Minnesota for many years. As FF's become more expensive, it will make more sense, too.

But, now, excuse me. I just have to call in one of my favorite Henry David Thoreau quotes from a book that I have:

I just put another stick into my stove,---a pretty large mass of white oak. How many men will do enough this cold winter to pay for the fuel that will be required to warm them? I suppose I have burned up a pretty good-sized tree tonight,---and for what?

I settled with Mr. Tarbell for it the other day; but that wasn't the final settlement. I got off cheaply from him. At last, one will say, "Let us see, how much wood did you burn, sir?" And I shall shudder to think that the next question will be, "What did you do while you were warm?" Do we think the ashes will pay for it? that God is an ash-man?

Back to today's USDA announcement, "Vilsack announces biomass subsidies in the name of "advanced biofuels." The subsidy focus is directed differently than the biomass article from the WSJ, which is biomass for power generation, but the biomass problems related to advanced biofuels far exceed the biomass problems related to power generation since the technology isn't even there and many doubt that it ever will be.

There you have it.
--Kalpa

Never Underestimate Bacteria

On June 8th, 2010 on my old blog, "Financial News Express" I wrote a widely read post "This Oil Spill Too Shall Pass" which was linked on Naked Capitalism and featured on Energy Bulletin. I guess you could say that it was another of my contrarian views, as the media and blogosphere were telling us that the spill would be TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it) at the time.

My article stated that oil is a natural substance within Gaia's comfortable world and she has oil-eating bacteria suited for the job since it had already been estimated that the oceans gobble up a billion gallons of oil each year. [The Deepwater Horizon's final crude oil spill estimate stands at 185-206 million gallons total.] Additionally, I said that the destruction to the Grasslands ecosystems by industrial agriculture was far greater than the spill, including Gulf-related damage, yet, few are in an uproar about that.

Today, an interesting report from NPR discusses how scientists now think that ocean-dwelling methane-eating bacteria are capable of eating methane at 100 times the rate the scientists had previously expected.

All in all, there is much we don't know about our oceans, yet, and especially the deep areas and the biosystems which exist there.

Here is the 2 minute NPR story.


For those interested in bacteria, don't miss the remarkable article included in yesterday's Ag news Roundup: Bacteria R Us.

As a final note, I'll add that far greater damage has been done by industrial agriculture's assaults to the microbes of our topsoils than has occurred so far in our oceans.

Drought Conditions in the Southeast U.S.

From the WSJ: Extreme Drought Grips Parts of South, Midwest

"Parts of Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Florida and southern Indiana are suffering "extreme drought," according to data expected to be released by the center Thursday."

Agricultural Investment Idea Round Up October 20, 2010

Investment:

1. Share falls could trigger 'major crop sell-off'
   "Farm commodities could be in for a "major sell-off" if share prices suffer further setbacks, encouraging funds to slash further their record exposure to crops, Australia & New Zealand Bank warned."
2. Lindsay shares extend gains, hitting two-year high
   "Shares in Lindsay Corporation jumped 9% to their highest in two years after the irrigation equipment and infrastructure group unveiled a near-tripling in earnings, a far bigger rise than Wall Street had expected."
3. Fertilizer stocks: Rise, peak, fall, repeat?
   "Here they go again: Just two years after fertilizer stocks peaked at remarkable highs, many of the same stocks are taking off once more. Should investors hop on board for a second run? "
4. A Global Grain Powerhouse
   "One of the best and safest ways to participate in the broad global agri-boom is to own shares of a company like Viterra (TSE:VT; PINK:VTRAF)."
5. Monsanto's Pain Is Syngenta's Gain
   "Exhibit A: rival Syngenta's (NYSE: SYT) third-quarter sales report. Historically, Syngenta has been strong in crop protection products and in Europe and Latin America and weak in seeds and in North America -- not coincidentally, the opposite areas and business lines where Monsanto is weak and strong, respectively."
6. Corn Price Momentum May Keep Going
   "Focused ETFs: ETFS Corn ETF (CORN-LSE), ETFs Leveraged Corn ETF (LCOR-LSE), ETFs Leveraged ..."
7. Zeroing In on an Ag Stock
   "...Worse still are the vultures overhead. Of all domestically traded MOO components, LNN has the highest short ratio: 15-to-1. Somebody's banking B-I-G on Lindsay taking a tumble."
8. Ags Go Wild After Crop Report
   "...For even broader exposure, however, investors have a number of choices. The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Agriculture Subindex ETN (JJA) is composed of seven different commodities with soybeans, corn, and wheat making up two-thirds of the allocation."
9. Grasping the Teucrium Corn ETF’s Huge Premium
   "As a result, CORN finished Friday at $37.12, a premium to its net asset value of more than 8%"

Round Two: A University of Illinois Report Concludes that we are not in a Farmland Price Bubble

OK, So I am Crazy, But so is Sheila
Yesterday, I posted my article, "Farmland Bubble Warning; So Maybe I'm Not Crazy After-all Because I was Beginning to Wonder" containing the Sheila Bair warning that the central bankers are watching farmland closely as they think it might be the next bubble, and reiterated some of my present and past concerns.

Today, I'd like to follow-up with an analysis coming out of the University of Illinois by Gary Schnitkey, who concludes that farmland prices are not a bubble and an appreciation of 3% next year would be in line with current conditions. His number one concern for downward pressure on farmland prices is the potential for (perhaps rapid) interest rate increases. His second main concern would be a decrease in farmland returns. He doesn't see either in the short term.

In his statistics and graphs, the one sounding some warning bells was the fact that farmland prices have increased faster than cash rents since 1987. Schnitkey states, "In essence, the return on which farmland price is based is becoming a less of a percent of farmland price."



The next key paragraph is in Schnitkey's conclusion:

At this point, farmland returns and cash rents appear to be under no downward pressure over the next several years. In fact, recent commodity price increases likely will cause cash rents to increase. These rental increases may support farmland price increases over the next several years. Farmland price increases in the 3% range over the next year would cause prices to still be in line with capitalized values.

I appreciated the work by Schnitkey, yet, I'd like to comment on a few concerns that I have that he didn't mention:

• Our current global deflationary position still makes commodity prices vulnerable to falling, even this coming year and more, even given their strength at the time being.
• I expect volatility in commodity prices as well as the dollar's value over this next year, or two, or three. Will farmland prices remain strong under volatile conditions?
• I continue to remain open to the possibility of a stronger dollar over the next year given the event that European debt problems escalate again which would be bearish for U.S. Ag commodities.
• Policy renewal (or not) of the corn ethanol subsidy will help determine corn prices next year. That is still an unknown which we cannot assume.
• The possibility of higher crude/energy costs.
  
• Governmental shifts towards austerity could cut current farm supports, especially dependent upon outcomes of upcoming elections.
• There continues to be a farmland investment frenzy going on which is putting positive pressure on land values.
  

All in all, this is a timely study, and one that many are interested in. I highly recommend reading the whole report.
--Kalpa

See the article here: FARMLAND PRICE OUTLOOK: ARE FARMLAND PRICES TOO HIGH RELATIVE TO RETURNS AND INTEREST RATES?

With Stu Ellis's version here: Land Prices: Are They Going Up or Down?

(h/t Stu Ellis)

Farmland Bubble Warning

So Maybe I'm Not Crazy After-all
Because I was Beginning to Wonder

It's hard to be a contrarian sometimes. I was convinced the logic was there to support my case well over a year ago. Global grain stocks were too high to support commodity prices. Farmland's ever increasing prices didn't look sustainable based upon increasing input costs and decreasing commodity prices. Global macroeconomic conditions were decidedly deflationary. Add to the list that every last person wants to own it in their pension fund or outright, which is a warning signal for the end of a bubble's time line.

We've seen Ireland, one of the leading PIIGS, see a drop its farmland prices by close to 50% in the recent past. We are seeing farm loan delinquency rates here in the U.S. at a 17-year high. We are seeing the smaller farmer struggle with higher input costs. We see the consumer unable to support higher food prices at the supermarket. If you've followed my news closely in the past several months, we're even seeing more central and regional bankers issue warnings, as well as a few high level investment analysts.

We have a sector (farming) which is impossible to enter these days based upon exorbitant start-up costs. Is something wrong, when to make a profit, the industrial farmer is told to plant wheat and double-crop beans if his growing season is long enough? When we burn millions of tons of food for our cars to consume? Are we facing a future age of land barons employing serf farm laborers, or can government agricultural policy react to promote vibrant agricultural regions and small communities once again by embracing the smaller farmer while preserving our soils? A farmland price correction would be a necessary, healthy part of that picture.

Now, today, we get a warning from Sheila Bair, FDIC chair, saying that farmland may be the next bubble to break. From Reuters: FDIC chair warns of possible US farmland 'bubble'.

I have written a number of warnings on this subject this past year-and-a-half. To see them, go to the "Farmland Values" tab above, where they are linked. When I did my recent August farmland update thread, I introduced it by saying:

For those "investors" interested in this thread, I continue a cautionary outlook on farmland investing. There are too many contra-indicators historically to warrant a dive into owning farmland as a "sure bet" during this deflationary environment. Any student of the Great Depression knows that it is not a "sure bet". A diversification, yes. If you've got all of your other bases covered.

It's all in the timing.

I have written more on this topic previously so will not go into it further here. See: Agriculture is a Bubble Ready to Pop, and Farmland Investment Still Premature.

Especially these past few weeks with Ben's QE round II, and the recent run-up in farmland prices again, I've felt lonely and unpopular with this bearish farmland outlook. Yesterday, for example, the Omaha World-Herald had this article, Land's Back in the Picture.

Even today, there are too many confusing dynamics at play to predict with any extreme certainty the timing, one being the strength of the frenzied movement itself, to buy farmland. But, at some point down the road we will see austerity measures enter politics here in the U.S. The UK's DEFRA is bracing for a possible 30% cut in agricultural supports in their current budget. That might give a window into some kind of crystal ball here in this country, and perhaps sooner than later.

How much longer will the perceived "safe harbor investment" last and when it finally breaks, how far will it fall? Those are the big questions.
--Kalpa

Farm Loan Delinquencies are at a 17-year High; Purdue's 2011 Farm Outlook; DEFRA Cuts Loom; Plus Other Agricultural Economic News

1. This is a worrisome article about the rapidly increasing default rates of Minnesota agriculture loans, up 83% from two years ago. Nationally, farm loan delinquencies are at a 17-year high. "It's kind of a silent crisis." [minneapolis star tribune] For more on Minnesota farm woes, see this.
2. Walmart's new plan to buy and sell local produce [NYT]
3. Ireland's Unemployed Head Back to the Farm - The country has a 13.8 percent jobless rate, but the food sector is thriving... one of the reasons for the rebound is that the price of land fell approximately 50% last year. [Bloomberg]
4. 2011 Indiana Agriculture Outlook includes an interesting page on farmland values in Indiana [purdue - pdf]
5. Here is a NASA satellite image of Pakistan after the flooding. "According to a recent United Nations report, nearly 17,000 square miles of land in the province remains underwater, with more than one million people displaced in temporary camps, unable to return home."[NYT]
6. UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Agriculture is on the brink of the biggest spending cuts for 80 years with DEFRA poised to announce how it plans to meet coalition government targets in next week's spending review... Any cuts of less than 30% will be seen as a victory for DEFRA secretary Caroline Spelman, who struck a deal with the Treasury, which has ordered departments to cut budgets by between 25% and 40%. [farmer's weekly]
7. Subsidies are needed to farmers from any drops in crop prices and efforts should be made to redevelop and repopulate rural areas, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says. [Chicago Tribune]
8. This well-written article is by Robert Jensen, a journalism professor from the University of Texas, about the "Prairie Festival" in Salina, Kansas, the same festival which I attended and wrote about. But, I lament that I am not as great a writer as he. [counter punch] For one more viewpoint following the festival, this partial article by Fred Bahnson is also worth the read. It focuses on Wes Jackson.
9. FAO Calls for 70 Percent Increase in World Food Production [vao news]
10. Chiquita Brands International Inc. is using a new wash on its bagged salads that it says better kills bacteria including E. coli and salmonella. [cnbc]
11. Nearly 40,000 young chickens are dead following an early morning fire at a poultry house in Rockingham County, Virginia. [claims journal]
12. World Coarse Grain Production Prospects Down 10 Million Tons [Cattlenetwork]
13. Food shock: Market volatility a bigger threat than grain shortage. "The global food crisis that has been looming for years has arrived: Only it’s not the one we’ve been expecting." [globe and mail]
    

On the Macro Front

1. Here is Nouriel Roubini's latest: "The risk of global currency and trade wars is rising, with most economies now engaged in competitive devaluations. All are playing a game that some must lose." [project syndicate]
2. FT Alphaville lists 25 nation's currency interventions and reminds us of the Great Depression [FT Alphaville]
3. Even though I'm late to this, I highly recommend it: "Volcker Spares No One in Broad Critique" [WSJ]
   

Gary Shilling on the Dollar and Housing October 2010

You may remember from my blog, Financial News Express, that I am a Gary Shilling fan. As a contrarian, he's bullish on the dollar and he updates his case. Here's his latest - always worth watching. . . Gary Shilling Interview on U.S. Housing, the Dollar, and currency wars. (9 minutes) [Bloomberg video link]

Note that Mauldin included this Shilling quote about housing in his last letter:

Furthermore, false appraisals rose 50% in 2009 from 2008. The tax credit for first-time homebuyers cost taxpayers about $15 billion, twice the official forecast, in part due to fraud. Over 19,000 tax filers claimed the credit but didn't buy houses, while 74,000 who claimed $500 million in refunds already owned homes." Where are the regulators? (Shilling thinks prices are likely to fall another 20%.)

How does Low Growth Affect the U.S. Deficit?

[source: wsj]
32%: The increase in U.S. government debt over the next five years if US economic growth stays as slow as it is now. (Read more on this IMF report from the WSJ.)

Yeo Valley UK Organic Yogart Farm Rap Video Goes Viral

Environmental and Energy Study Institute Briefing on Peak Oil October 2010

Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand?

On October 7, 2010, the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing on challenges facing the oil industry to keep pace with rising global demand, and the potential implications for oil prices, national security, and the world economy.

Speakers included: Neil Brown, Franklin Rusco, Tad Patzek, Guy Caruso, Robert Hirsch, Arthur Berman

Bernanke, Japan, and the Possibility of Stagflation

The October 12th issue of the WSJ had an interesting article by Jon Hilsenrath titled "Fed Chief Gets Set to Apply Lessons of Japan's History." This is definitely worth reading as it gives us insight into Bernanke's thinking, based upon what he advised Japan while he was a Princeton professor in the 1990's.

These were the two paragraphs that particularly got my attention:

Mr. Bernanke was particularly troubled by Japan's emerging deflation. He argued that Bank of Japan officials had to aggressively manage the public's expectations, because convincing households and businesses that deflation wouldn't persist would help to spur economic activity.

Mr. Bernanke felt that Japan's central bank needed to make a commitment to get inflation higher and keep policy accommodative until it increased. Among his proposals was a suggestion that the bank publicly adopt an inflation target of 3% to 4%.

Is this where we are today? Fiat currency is a confidence game, but never so much as when a central bank is faced with the threat of deflation.

In one of the stated goals, Bernanke proposed that the Japanese buy long-term government debt to finance tax cuts.

Could this stage of the game mean stagflation for Americans? Could the weak consumer be faced with higher living expenses in the process of being forced to spend, borrow, and invest again? Stagflation might result in even more unwelcome political intervention in the way of new subsidies or even price controls in the future.

And would the U.S. be in any stronger economic position as a result of such policy? Is the timing right? Or is it simply one more attempt at the easiest way out for the policy-makers?

From today's FT:

One economist in Japan assigns a 40 per cent probability to deflation in the US – albeit not for several years. He says that low interest rates have had no impact on the moribund US housing market.

“People expect too much from Ben Bernanke. The excess liquidity from the Fed may lift asset prices. It will increase market volatility. But it is not dealing with the structural problems. The bubble will burst. Bernanke is not the white knight who can save the US from deflation.”

But who among us expected the success of the "green shoots" psychology that's been achieved so far?

My favorite economic terms these days are "patchwork economy" and "disequilibrium".

We monkeys are more than a little off-balance in our dice-rolling.

From North Dakota to Kazakhstan: 2,040 Cattle via 747 Jet

photo source
Today's most unusual and interesting Ag story came out of North Dakota:

ND cattle airlifted in major export sale to Kazakhstan

As a result of ongoing trade efforts begun in 2006, today a 747 jet carried the first shipment of 160 cattle housed in large metal crates from Fargo, North Dakota to Astana, Kazakhstan. This marks the beginning of a $50 million project and the sale of 2,040 cattle to be airlifted from North Dakota to Kazakhstan so that Kazakhstan can develop and grow its cattle operations, which dwindled from 35 million head in 1991 to 2 million head as a result of economic supply and demand shocks.

The Irrational Volatile Grain Commodity Markets

photo source
The state of journalism in this country is unfortunate and another nail in the quality coffin occurred when Rupert Murdoch bought the WSJ (Dow Jones) in August 2007. His "News Corporation" had a reputation for cutting employees and gutting existing systems. We already knew where to find our sports news and recipes, thank you.

So, when I read the WSJ's front page story titled "Farm Belt Bounces Back; Corn, Soybean, Cotton Prices Advance as Asian Demand Lifts U.S. Heartland", and the first sentence was "Major agricultural commodities continued their extended run-up in price, underscoring how much of America's farm belt is booming even as the overall economy continues to struggle," I knew I was going to be disappointed.

Luckily, the middle of the article contained a tad bit of substance, but so much of the story went missing and was extremely shallow, something one would not have expected from a front page, in depth article from the WSJ a few years, or more, ago. There is no mention of Ernie Goss's monthly report which continued to show the Heartland in negative economic territory in September. There is barely a mention of the dollar's value, a pretty key element when it comes to U.S. commodity exports. Then, unexpectedly, the article veers off to become a cotton story.

One part of what was missing in the article was spelled out by Marshall Auerback over at Naked Capitalism, in his post "You Can Thank Ben Bernanke for Higher Food Prices." He explains why grain commodities no longer follow logical stock-to-consumption numbers due to speculation and bubble blowing. Towards the end of the article, he concludes:

"If quantitative easing by the Fed and other global central banks turns out to be dramatic, the desire to hold physical assets may increase – no matter how high their cost of carry and how weak the global economy may become. Commodity prices will then remain high relative to stock availability, and might go much higher."

As for the above quote, I wish I knew whether that idea will prove true or not. My take on the subject is to expect volatility and quite possibly regulation controlling food commodity speculation. A few days ago on this blog, I covered the Agrimoney article warning that Societe Generale is reducing their commodity holdings in preparation for commodity trading clampdowns expected from the G20. But, until that happens the traders must be having a hey-day racing their computers in quick run-ups and downs based upon USDA and other crop and weather reports. So, continue to expect irrational volatility until regulation happens, if and when it does.

On a positive note for the WSJ, however, "Heard on the Street" did a brief article which came to a similar conclusion as Auerback: Fed's Reflation Bet Could Hit Consumers Before It Helps. It concluded, "Fed policy makers may be striving to kick-start growth and reduce chronic unemployment levels. But because assets like commodities are responding to cheap money much faster than, say, houses, the Fed risks drowning struggling U.S. consumers instead."

And keep expecting to hear those pea-brained Ag bulls out there explain how logical everything is playing out because the world's population is growing rapidly so it is obvious that food will become more expensive.

Large Brazil grain harvest; Costco Sells for the Apocalypse; Rice to rise 30%; High protein Potato

1. A young family near Lincoln, Nebraska becomes successful at organic farming. (includes video) [Lincoln Journal Star]
2. A Virginia Livestock Exchange, built in 1963, burns down. Will it be rebuilt? [Washington-Post]
   
3. Finance blogger and hobby farmer Kid Dynamite helps slaughter a neighbor's cow complete with photos and video. [Kid Dynamite's World]
4. Brazil's grain harvest is expected to be up eleven percent. [Bloomberg]
5. Supermarket food prices fell in the third quarter. [Cattlenetwork]
6. Costco is there to help those planning for the end of the world as we know it. [My Northwest]
7. There were few takers on California's offer to hire American workers to do farm labor. [market to market]
   
8. If the U.S. wastes 27% of its food, that represents 350 million barrels of oil per year, or two percent of U.S. energy consumption. [Environmental Science & Technology]
9. The rice harvest in the U.S., the world’s fourth-largest exporter last year, may be at least 10 percent smaller than estimated, missing a forecast record output and pushing prices 30 percent higher. [Bloomberg]
10. A Fed attempt to reflate may cause stagflation, hitting the consumer instead, as evidenced by the recent commodity price run-up. [WSJ]
11. Outsourcing our nations jobs is alive and well. [LA Times]
12. A higher protein potato has been genetically engineered. [ars technica]
13. Farmers in upstate New York are having a tough time due to higher input costs. [abc local]

U.S. Corn Export Data; Price and Supply Issues

Corn has been dominating the agricultural news lately, riding the roller-coaster of investor responses to the latest USDA crop and supply reports. Here are a few key points:

• Corn closed at $5.56 per bushel today.
• Thirty-six percent of U.S. corn is expected to go towards ethanol production this year.
• Although the U.S. is expected to have its third largest corn production year, domestic supplies may reach a 14 year low, falling below the one billion bushel level.
• If corn prices stay high, hog and cattle numbers will likely be further reduced; and U.S. cattle numbers are already at a fifty year low due to poor demand in this current economic climate.
• If corn prices stay high, ethanol plants may be forced to close due to unprofitability, relaxing corn supplies down the road.
• So far, supermarkets are not raising food prices, because the consumer cannot support them. Last quarter, prices went down again.
  
• This current supply and price condition may also hinder the renewal of the controversial VEETC ethanol tax credit of $.45 per gallon, set to expire the end of this year.
• Conclusion: As price goes up, expect demand to go down.
  

Next, I am providing corn import and export data of related interest from a former USDA report.
---Kalpa


The United States is the world's largest producer and exporter of corn. Corn grain exports represent a significant source of demand for U.S. producers and make the largest net contribution to the U.S. agricultural trade balance of all the agricultural commodities, indicating the importance of corn exports to the U.S. economy.




On average, corn grain (excluding popcorn or sweet corn) accounted for approximately 11 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports by value during the 1990s. In 2008, due to record exports of corn and other feed grains, that share grew to over 12 percent of the U.S agricultural export value. The U.S. share of world corn exports averaged 60 percent during 2003/04-2007/08 (the international trade year is October-September.

As biofuel production develops and expands, it will continue to put pressure on U.S. corn and other feed grain production, exports, livestock feeding, and other domestic uses.



While the United States dominates world corn trade, exports account for only a relatively small portion of demand for U.S. corn—about 15 percent. This means that corn prices are largely determined by supply-and-demand relationships in the U.S. market, and the rest of the world must adjust to prevailing U.S. prices. This makes world corn trade and prices dependent on weather in the U.S. Corn Belt.

However, Argentina, the second-largest corn exporter in most years, is in the Southern Hemisphere. Farmers there plant their corn after the size of the U.S. crop is known, providing a quick, market-oriented supply response to short U.S. crops. Several countries—including Brazil, Ukraine, Romania, and South Africa—have had significant corn exports when crops were large or international prices attractive.

Japan is the world's largest corn importer by far. While producing almost no coarse grains, Japan is a very large meat producer, so the country is a steady buyer of corn, with attention to quality. In recent years, Japanese imports of corn for livestock feed have stagnated, while imports for industrial use and starch manufacturing have increased.

South Korea is the second-largest importer of corn in the world. South Korea is a price-conscious buyer, willing to switch to feed wheat or other coarse grains, and ready to buy corn from the cheapest source. Mexico is a growing importer. While a large corn producer, Mexico processes much of its production of white corn into human food products, but has turned to imported yellow corn and sorghum for livestock feed to support increased meat production.

Summary:

• Corn is the most widely produced feed grain in the United States, accounting for more than 90 percent of total value and production of feed grains.
• Around 80 million acres of land are planted to corn, with the majority of the crop grown in the Heartland region.
• Most of the crop is used as the main energy ingredient in livestock feed.
• Corn is also processed into a multitude of food and industrial products including starch, sweeteners, corn oil, beverage and industrial alcohol, and fuel ethanol.
• The United States is a major player in the world corn trade market, with approximately 20 percent of the corn crop exported to other countries.

source: Feb. 09 USDA report

[I took the photo in central Nebraska in late September 2010.]

Canadian Focus: Agriculture and Farmland Values

photo source

Today, I've done a news round-up of some Canadian agricultural news items, mostly related to farmland values, plus profitability and food issues. Farmland prices went up for the first six months of the year, on average, in Canada. Crop reports are down on wet weather.
--Kalpa


Canadian flavour - Does Canada have a national food identity?

In the mind of a reasonable person, the words “Canadian” and “cuisine” don’t go together. Like putting milk in a plastic bag, to most people it just doesn’t make sense. Other countries, like France and Italy, have internationally recognized menus whose popularity has crossed borders. Even Quebec has developed its own hearty cuisine, with poutine beginning to appear across the U.S. The closest thing to a distinctly Canadian culinary staple comes in a large paper cup filled with a dubious concoction a friend of mine fondly calls “Tim Horton’s drink,” because as long as you don’t think of it as coffee, it tastes alright.

Nathalie Cooke, associate provost and professor of English at McGill, has some background in the matter. She is the founding editor of CuiZine: the Journal of Canadian Food Cultures, and, most recently, editor of What’s to Eat: Entrées in Canadian Food History, shortlisted for the 2010 Cuisine Canada book awards....

Wheat crop falls 17 per cent, StatsCan says

A planting season that began with torrential rain and flooding and is ending with crop-killing frost will cut Canada’s total wheat production by more than 17 per cent this year, Statistics Canada reported Monday. “Farmers reported that cool and wet conditions delayed seeding in some parts of the Prairies, while wet weather in September was reported to be delaying the harvesting of crops,” the federal agency said, based on surveys of farmers early last month....

Warnings of drop in wheat, canola yields

Canada is expecting a significant drop in wheat and canola production this year after cold and rain delayed seeding in its vast Western prairie provinces, Statistics Canada announced Monday.

Sobering winds of deflation blow in from the south: time to get ready

Since deflation represents an economy afflicted with too much capacity and too little demand, Canadians might want to pay attention to what's happening south of the border. Waning demand in a country that accounts for more than 80 per cent of Canada's exports poses a serious threat to domestic economic growth. The latest U.S. consumer price index showed a gain of 0.3 per cent for August, but the core rate, excluding food and energy, was flat.

Alberta family farms face struggle to survive

The composition of the traditional family farm has been evolving over decades. The number of farms across the country is shrinking -- 4,221 fewer in Alberta in 2006 than 2001, an eight per cent drop. In 2006 there were 49,431 farms in the province, according to Statistics Canada. And the farms are getting larger, with an increasing number over 906 hectares. Those larger operations climbed to 11 per cent of all farms in Alberta from nine per cent.

The cost of everything from land to fertilizer to equipment rises, while the price of crops and animals doesn't always keep pace. "It gets more and more difficult to run a family farm as we've known it in the past, the mom-and-pop type of operation," says Clem Samson, vice-president of western operations for Farm Credit Canada, an agricultural lender. "With the increasing costs for equipment, the increasing cost for inputs, certainly the uncertainty of the marketplace."

Thanksgiving: family values and the family farm

According to Statistics Canada, the number of family farms in Alberta declined by more than 4,200 between 2001 and 2006. And with costs for fertilizer and land continuing to escalate -- and revenues from crops and livestock not keeping pace -- it means farmers like 26 year Darcy Koester of Rockyford are trying to find new ways to make farm economics viable.... Ironically the value of farm land in Alberta was up 3.8 percent in the last six months of 2009. It was up another 2.9 percent in the first six months of this year.

Ontario teachers pension plan may bid for Potash

Canadian pension fund Ontario Teachers Pension Plan is plotting a rival offer for fertilizer producer Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan that could scupper BHP Billiton Ltd.'s $39 billion hostile takeover of the company.

FARMLAND SUBJECT:

We need to protect the local farms, fields, and fisheries that feed us

A report by the David Suzuki Foundation, Ontario's Wealth, Canada's Future, found that an alarming 16 per cent of farmland in the Greater Toronto Area was lost to urban encroachment between 1996 and 2001. This represents the loss of thousands of acres of some of the most fertile soils in all of North America. The same is happening in other growing communities across the country – like Ottawa, Calgary, and even smaller towns like Fort St. John in northern B.C.

P.E.I. farmland values stagnate

The value of Prince Edward Island farmland continues to stagnate, according to a new report by Farm Credit Canada. The report shows the price of island farmland was unchanged in the first half of 2010, and has dropped or stayed the same in every similar report since 2003. Meanwhile, other provinces, including Nova Scotia and Ontario, showed increases. In the last three semi-annual reporting periods, farmland values in Canada increased by an average of 2.9 per cent in fall 2009, 3.6 per cent in spring 2010 and 3.0 per cent in fall 2010. John Jamieson, executive director of the P.E.I. Federation of Agriculture, said the biggest concern about P.E.I.'s numbers is an increase in farmers' debt load.

Farmland values rise everywhere but B.C.: FCC

"Highly productive" farmland continued to be a hot commodity in most parts of Canada during the first half of this year, according to Farm Credit Canada's twice-yearly farmland values report. Overall, the Crown ag finance firm said in its report Monday, the average value of farmland in Canada rose three per cent during the first half of 2010, following gains of 3.6 and 2.9 per cent in the previous two periods. Among the provinces, Ontario posted the highest average increase at 4.3 per cent over the first half of 2010 ending June 30.... [for information on each province, please go to the source]

Farm Credit Canada: Fall 2010 Farmland Values Report

[Farmland Values Report provincial releases - There is much more data at the source.]

Ontario: At 4.3 per cent, Ontario experienced the largest provincial increase in farmland values during the first half of 2010.

Manitoba: Manitoba farmland values increased an average of 3.4 per cent during the first half of 2010.

Nova Scotia: Nova Scotia farmland values increased an average of 3.1 per cent during the first half of 2010.

Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan farmland values increased an average of 2.9 per cent during the first half of 2010.

Alberta: Alberta farmland values increased an average of 2.9 per cent during the first half of 2010 -- a trend that has continued since 1993.

Quebec: Quebec farmland values increased an average of 2.3 per cent during the first half of 2010.

Newfoundland and Labrador: Newfoundland and Labrador farmland values increased 0.7 per cent over the first six months of 2010.

New Brunswick: New Brunswick farmland values were unchanged during the first half of 2010. Values have stabilized since reaching a peak increase of 6.3 per cent in the last half of 2008.

Prince Edward Island: Prince Edward Island farmland values remained stable over the first six months of 2010.

British Columbia: British Columbia was the only province to see a decrease in farmland values by an average of 0.9 per cent over the first six months of 2010.

Value of farmland in Sask. up

The Regina-based federal Crown corporation is Canada's leading agriculture lender, with a loan portfolio of more than $19.7 billion and 17 consecutive years of portfolio growth.

When urban zones hit rural - Complaints over farm practices on rise as more people move to countryside

There's no doubt in Tom Baumann's mind: The Fraser Valley contains the best farmland in Canada. The University of the Fraser Valley agriculture professor regularly shows his students two photos. The first, taken in 1985 of the eastern Fraser Valley from the top of Mt. Cheam, shows a hazy grid of green and brown fields. The second, taken in 2006 from the same place, shows a grid of fields stamped with another grid of tiny buildings. "The land is slowly being eaten up," he says. That's because the region with the best farmland in Canada also has one of the fastest-growing populations in the country.

Farmland Frontier - New wave of agricultural land-grabs reaches Canada

In an age of escalating food insecurity and financial uncertainty, large corporations, investors, and even nations states have been stalking the globe in pursuit of an age-old and certain commodity: farmland. Bought up on a large scale to secure food for cropstarved countries or to make a safe investment, farmland is becoming the lucrative prize of a new resource frontier. The sweep of agricultural land grabs has stripped small farmers in Africa, Latin America and Asia of control over vital tracts of fertile land. And quietly, these modern-day land marauders are coming to Canada—undermining family farms, compromising local food sovereignty, and harming the environment.... News has broken recently about Quebec-based Monaxxion, representing Chinese financiers, which seeks to purchase 99,000 acres of land across Canada.... And Agcapita, a Calgary-based investment fund, has scooped up between 30,000 and 60,000 acres of farmland, mostly in Saskatchewan....

Two-Year Monthly Jobs Graph

Source: WSJ